On the Rise of Homelessness in Urban America, and Our Next Steps to Address It Here in Dallas

During her State of the Homeless Address on March 21, 2018, Cindy J. Crain, MDHA President and CEO, shared the results of the 2018 Homeless Count in Dallas and Collin Counties. The numbers showed an increase in homelessness, in general, and unsheltered homelessness, specifically, accompanied by drops in chronic and veteran homelessness. That same week, the Collin County Homeless Coalition published its report, which showed a drop in the number of those experiencing homelessness in that county. Not surprisingly, it takes the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) many more months to report on the results for the entire country.
 
In the meantime, we do have the 2017 numbers, which came out fairly recently, this last December, with HUD’s submission of Part I of its 2017 Annual Homeless Assessment Report (AHAR) to Congress on Point-in-Time Estimates of Homelessness. HUD reported that, “Homelessness increased for the first time in seven years. The number of people experiencing homelessness increased by a little less than one percent between 2016 and 2017.” Interestingly, though, this aggregate number reflects two separate phenomena: “This increase reflected a nine percent increase in the number of people experiencing homelessness in unsheltered locations, which was partially offset by a three percent decline in the number of people experiencing homelessness in sheltered locations.”
 
More importantly, HUD emphasized that this is primarily an urban problem: “Recent increases in homelessness were driven mostly by specific changes happening within cities. Increases in the numbers of unsheltered individuals in the 50 largest cities accounted for nearly all of the national increase…  The number of all people experiencing homelessness increased in major cities and decreased elsewhere between 2016 and 2017… More specifically, increases in unsheltered homelessness in major cities drove the national increase…”

One of our homeless friends at an encampment in 2017
(Photo taken by award winning photographer, B.J. Lacasse)

Why is this? What is going on in our cities?

An earlier HUD report, Worst Case Housing Needs – 2017 Report to Congress, may help us understand:

Worst case housing needs are a national problem. Such severe housing problems have expanded dramatically during the past decade and were exacerbated by the economic recession and associated collapse of the housing market, which reduced homeownership through foreclosures and tight lending and increased demand for renting. The slight improvements observed since 2011 offer cause for hope, but the failure to sustain the more promising trends observed in 2013 is sobering… The latest resumption of worsening housing problems among the nation’s very low-income renters is attributable primarily to demographic and economic factors—especially a notable shift from homeownership to renting—that grew the number of households susceptible to worst case needs. Uneven housing market responses that increased the proportion of unassisted very low-income renters with severe rent burdens played a secondary yet substantial role.

Even with rental assistance, 6 of 10 extremely low-income renters and 4 of 10 very low-income renters do not have access to affordable and available housing units. Among very low-income renters in 2015, only 25 percent of households had rental assistance and an additional 43 percent had worst case needs for assisted or other affordable housing. In other words, only a small share of very low-income renters—32 percent—avoided severe housing problems in the unassisted private rental market in 2015.  

And where is this problem most pronounced? “Central cities were home to most (9.51 million) very low-income renters, followed by suburbs (7.23 million) and nonmetropolitan areas (2.49 million).” The report emphasizes that the main culprit in this crisis is the lack of affordable rental housing in the nation’s urban centers.
 
Arguably, what we have is not a homelessness crisis, but an acute affordable housing crisis, and the epicenter of that crisis is in our cities, including Dallas and other urban communities in Texas. As we wrote, about a year ago, “Housing is the key… Local governments must act now to create affordable housing… We need more permanent supportive housing, more second chance housing, and more affordable housing in the 0-30% AMI (Area Median Income) range.” And HUD’s prescription is clear: “A broad strategy at the federal, state, and local levels is needed to continue to rebuild the economy, strengthen and realign markets, and provide assistance to those families most in need.”

Two of our formerly homeless friends
(Photo taken by award winning photographer, B.J. Lacasse)

The emphasis on the federal level is well warranted. The current level of federal funding for the Continuum of Care Program, just over $2 billion, is essentially a rounding error in a $4 trillion Federal Budget. We can’t expect to end homelessness, with this level of investment. As we wrote in December: “Especially over the last decade, we have become extremely skillful at building systems that maximize the impact of these $2 billion. However, as a nation, we have not explored the idea of significantly adding to that funding. We have accepted… that around $2 billion, in 2017 dollars, is enough to defeat a social ill that has been with us for forty years and counting.”

Ann Oliva
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary, HUD

However, we do need to do our part here in Dallas and Collin Counties, and specifically the urban core of Dallas, to address this affordable housing crisis, that is driving the increase in homelessness. This is why on March 28-29, 2018, we brought together all of the major “players”, in Dallas and Collin Counties, who can affect this type of change on the local level, for a Homeless Response System Leadership Training and Strategic Planning Retreat. This groundbreaking gathering was facilitated by OrgCode, led by pioneering world expert, Dr. Iain De Jong. With De Jong and former HUD Deputy Assistant Secretary Ann Oliva, leading a team of facilitators, this retreat, with more than 65 senior leaders in attendance, was designed to usher in a more strategic community response to homelessness.

Dr. Iain De Jong
(Courtesy of the Salt Lake Tribune)

Participating leaders spent two whole days of intense action-oriented participative and interactive hard work. They focused on the critical nature of collective impact, and how an effective system of care can bring about an end to homelessness in our community. Together, through a strategic planning journey, utilizing the Breakthrough Thinking approach, participants made the necessary decisions and vital commitments that will chart our course, as a community.

We look forward to sharing the report OrgCode will produce to help our community flesh out the next steps. Then, united in vision and purpose, we will act on those decisions, and fulfill those commitments. That is how, working together, as a community, we can and will make homelessness in Dallas and Collin Counties, rare, brief and nonrecurring.

Watch the State of the Homeless Address Now!

• Bummed out that you missed the State of the Homeless Address? Fear not, we’ve got you covered!

 

 

• Download Cindy’s PowerPoint, so you can follow along here: http://www.mdhadallas.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/SOHA-2018-Final.pdf

• Don’t have time to watch now? Check out this quick summary: Metro Dallas Homeless Alliance President and CEO Delivers Annual State of the Homeless Address http://endinghomelessnessmdha.blogspot.com/2018/03/metro-dallas-homeless-alliance.html

• Check out some great coverage of the Address here: Without Enough Affordable Housing, Homelessness In Dallas Is Getting Worse, by Stephanie Kuo, KERA http://keranews.org/post/without-enough-affordable-housing-homelessness-dallas-getting-worse 

 

• How Many Homeless Live on the Streets? The Number Jumped 23% This Year, by Tasha Tsiaperas, Dallas Morning News https://www.dallasnews.com/news/social-justice-1/2018/03/21/homelessness-rise-living-dallas-streets-not-shelters-really-spiked

Metro Dallas Homeless Alliance President and CEO Delivers Annual State of the Homeless Address

Dallas, Texas – On Wednesday, March 21, 2018, the Metro Dallas Homeless Alliance (MDHA) held its fourth annual State of the Homeless Address, at Goodwill Industries of Dallas. The Address was delivered by MDHA President and CEO, Cindy J. Crain. It covered the results of January’s annual homeless count, as well as the progress of Dallas’ homeless response system, in making homelessness rare, brief and nonrecurring.

Ms. Crain’s PowerPoint Presentation may be downloaded from the MDHA website. The full address, including the question and answer period that followed it, will be posted to MDHA’s YouTube channel in the next few days. A bullet point summary of the address follows:

• Homeless Count Results:

-          Overall homelessness in Dallas and Collin Counties, clocking in at 4,140 individuals, rose by 9%, when compared to 2017.

-          Unsheltered homelessness, clocking in at 1,341 individuals, rose by 23% during the same time period.

-          The number of homeless veterans dropped from 356 individuals or 9.5% of the homeless population to 331 individuals or 8% of the homeless population.

-          The number of chronically homeless individuals (those homeless for a year or more, with a documented disability) continued to drop, for a second year now, clocking in at 424 individuals, or 21% fewer than in 2017.

-          The rise in the overall numbers and specifically the unsheltered numbers is in line with national trends across urban centers in the United States. It is attributable to the lack of affordable housing.

• MDHA’s Housing Priority List, which lies at the core of the homeless response system, is making a huge difference in Dallas. In an effective homeless response system, no placements are made in any program without objectively assessing each person, prioritizing them for service, based on the level of their vulnerability and specific needs, and placing each person on a unified Housing Priority List. Placements in housing are made only from that list, based on priority status and specific needs. As of mid-March 2018, there are about 790 individuals on the Housing Priority list, ready to be housed. 209 of these individuals are chronically homeless, which means that about half of the chronically homeless population is ready to be housed. Over the course of the last 12 months, 246 individuals have been housed from the Housing Priority List.

• MDHA is now able to analyze a wealth of data regarding health outcomes of individuals experiencing homelessness, through its new Homeless Management Information System, which is part of Pieces Iris. As Politico Magazine wrote in December 2017, Pieces Iris is already, “having a powerful impact on overwhelmed homeless organizations in Dallas…” The data collected through Iris is already making it easier to make not just the moral case, but the business case for ending individuals’ homelessness quickly and permanently. 

• Whatever measure we look at, we see a marked overrepresentation of African Americans in the homeless population. The homeless count showed that 60% of the unsheltered homeless are African Americans, and analysis of data from the Homeless Management Information System in the years 2011-2016, showed an even higher number - 66.7%. Since late 2016, with the support of the United Way of Metropolitan Dallas Unite Dallas Relief Fund, MDHA has been partnering with five other cities, towards establishing more racial equity in homeless services, through SPARC (Supporting Partnerships for Anti-Racist Communities), a new research and action program from the Center for Social Innovation (C4).

• MDHA is working with its partners, on a number of simultaneous projects, from a 90-day Emergency Shelter Housing Challenge through a separate State of Homeless Youth event in April to creating a detailed “My Housing Plan” framework for as many individuals as possible, to help them make progress in ending their homelessness, and eventually become housed.

• Next week, March 26-28, 2018 MDHA is convening a Homeless Response System Leadership and Strategic Planning Retreat, with about 65 local leaders and 10 national experts in the homelessness arena. The retreat will be facilitated by pioneering world expert, Dr. Iain De Jong, and is designed to usher in a more strategic community response to homelessness. Participating leaders will commit to two days of intense action-oriented interactive hard work, focusing on the critical nature of collective impact, and how an effective system of care can bring about an end to homelessness in our community. The ultimate goal will be to produce a Homeless Response System Consolidated Strategic Plan, through which all stakeholders can make a real impact in the fight against homelessness.

Ms. Crain ended her address, by emphasizing that the primary driver of homelessness is still extreme poverty, i.e. the lack of sufficient household income to meet the cost of housing. Demand for safe, affordable and accessible housing continues to dramatically outpace supply. Metropolitan Dallas and urban centers in America, in general, must address this problem by building more safe, affordable, accessible housing, as well as build up household incomes. That is the only way to end the modern homelessness crisis, which has afflicted the United States for more than four decades.

Supporting Partnerships for Anti-Racist Communities

One glaring fact that "jumps out" at anyone who analyzes the data on homelessness in Dallas, is the overrepresentation of African Americans in the homeless population. Since late 2016, with the support of the United Way of Metropolitan Dallas' Unite Dallas Relief Fund, we are partnering with six other cities, towards establishing more racial equity in homeless services, through SPARC (Supporting Partnerships for Anti-Racist Communities), a new research and action program from the Center for Social Innovation (C4).
 

Cindy J. Crain and Rev. Dr. Michael W. Waters

In Early February the Raikes Foundation and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation invited all of the six cities, as well as national leaders and funders to participate in the Center for Social Innovation's first-of-its-kind national summit on Racial Equity and Homelessness, at the headquarters of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, in Seattle, Washington. Representing MDHA and Dallas were Cindy J. Crain, MDHA President and CEO, David S. Gruber, MDHA Development and Communications Director, and Rev. Dr. Michael W. Waters, Pastor of Joy Tabernacle AME Church.

We are already putting what we learned into action, and Cindy will share more of our upcoming plans in this area during the State of the Homeless Address. That's just one more reason to RSVP today!     

In Dallas Everybody Counts. OK, What Happens Next?

Wow. What can we say? Thursday night, you showed that, in Dallas, everybody counts.   

We had so many volunteers at our largest site, First United Methodist Church, Dallas, that the first floor of the sanctuary, which seats 800, could not fit everyone. Some of our volunteers had to go up to the balcony! Altogether, we broke the record we set last year, in what was, once again, the largest Homeless Count in Texas history, with over 1,500 volunteers.

 So many organizations and individuals helped us pull this off. There is no way we could thank everyone who helped us. We did want to highlight First United Methodist Church, Dallas, and Wilshire Baptist Church, who hosted our two Dallas sites. And, as usual, our friends at United Way of Metropolitan Dallas proved indispensable, in spreading the word about the need for volunteers, and in running a special campaign, Warm a Sole, to give a pair of socks to every person experiencing homelessness in Dallas and Collin Counties.

 
Do you have pics, stories or impressions to share about that night, which you have yet to post? Please share them, using: #dallascounts2018.

If this is your first Homeless Count, and even if you have done a few before, you might be asking, OK, what happens now? Great question!

First of all, as we mentioned on our blog before, the use of the Counting Us app helped us and our partners immediately connect persons experiencing homelessness to services. Since the app automatically records the exact latitude and longitude of each person counted, we were able to supply outreach teams with this information. They were then able to go out the very next morning to assist individuals who might qualify for specific programs, specifically, youth, veterans, persons with HIV/AIDS, and pregnant women.

 The main thing we will do now, though, is compile all of the results we collected, of both sheltered and unsheltered counts, "clean" them up, correcting for duplicates and other errors, and "slice and dice" them by specific demographic groups. We will carefully analyze the results, and figure what they tell us about trends in homelessness, what is working in our homeless response system, and where our community needs to course correct.

On Wednesday, March 21, 2018, 9.30-11.30am, we will hold our annual State of the Homeless Address at Goodwill Industries of Dallas. Cindy J. Crain, MDHA President and CEO, will share the results of the 2018 Point-in-Time Homeless Count, and the progress of the Homeless Response System. Please save the date!

 

Finally, we will submit the results of the Count to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). These results will go into a national report HUD will submit to the U.S. Congress in late 2018. You can check out the 2017 report by clicking here. 

Who Cares How Many People Experience Homelessness in Dallas?

It’s a purposefully provocative question, but you must admit that not everyone does. Back in February, we articulated very clearly why our values dictated that we count each and every person experiencing homelessness. However, counting these individuals and doing so accurately, is not just about valuing each individual, it is about problem solving. The only way we can solve a problem is if we know its nature and its scope. Certainly, the only way we can know if we are making progress in solving that problem, is through continuous, careful and evidence based measurement.

Now, absolute accuracy is usually theoretical, even when measuring objects scientifically, however to dismiss the importance of trying to reach results as accurately as we can because of this, would be nihilistic. Instead, we measure as accurately as we can, and we acknowledge our limitations, up front, before we even start to measure. If we properly minimize our limitations, as much as we can, we can reach valid numbers.

Indeed, this is why we have always been very public about the measure of accuracy that can be achieved, the need to improve our count, and how we have done just that since 2015. This is also why more than a fifth of the State of the Homeless Address, this past March, was devoted to the intricacies of scientific mapping and resulting count methodology for our annual Homeless Count.

So, how many people do experience homelessness in Dallas? In our playbook, we talk about two important numbers we always keep in mind, “the number of those experiencing homelessness at any one time, about 3,800 in our last count, and the number of those who experience homelessness throughout the year. The annual Homeless Count, conducted every year around the same time, gives us the first number, and throughout the year, we use our Homeless Management Information System (HMIS) to track the second number, which is around 9,750. Obviously, the second number is always going to be larger than the first one, since the second number includes anyone who was homeless throughout the 365 days of the year.

It is important to keep in mind the difference between the two numbers, because we have seen some confusion in this area. In fact, a claim that comes up again and again is that there are about 10,000 people in Dallas and Collin Counties who are experiencing homelessness, in the present tense. Though we are not totally sure where that number came from, those who originated it, were probably confusing the two very different numbers. There simply are not 10,000 people experiencing homelessness, currently, in our two counties. The data, i.e. factual reality, does not support such a number. 

Schrödinger’s Homeless Cat*

The Thought Experiment

Perhaps the most famous quantum physics experiment is the thought experiment known as Schrödinger’s Cat. Erwin Schrödinger disagreed with a model of quantum mechanics. That model held that a particle exists in multiple states until observed. He used his thought experiment to disprove that model.

Imagine a sealed box containing a cat, a bottle of poison and a radioactive sample. The box is rigged, so once the sample has decayed, the bottle shatters, which kills the cat. Opening the box will allow us to detect if this has happened yet or not, but what about when the box is still sealed? According to the model Schrödinger was trying to disprove, the cat would be both alive and dead at the same time! Since that is obviously impossible, that model cannot be true. QED.

Now what remains true, and what undergirds the entire thought experiment, is that until we open the box, we don’t know if our furry feline friend is alive or dead. This is a perfect analogy for two different problems MDHA has been working on for the last two years.

(Courtesy of NobelPrize.org)

The Homeless Count

In early 2015, MDHA told the community, that regarding the number of unsheltered homeless persons counted in the annual homeless count, we had this type of Schrödinger’s Cat problem. We knew there were unsheltered homeless, and we were counting them every year, but we could not be confident we were finding everyone that could be found. We had what was, at least partially, a sealed box.

We needed to improve our count methodology, and we needed more volunteers. We explained that the experiences of other communities showed that you needed a ratio of 1:1, i.e. one volunteer per one unsheltered person, to find and count everyone.  We suggested that likely there were about 1,000 unsheltered persons in our jurisdiction, Dallas and Collin Counties.

Indeed, in 2016, in our first count conducted under our new counting regime, we had about 750 volunteers, and we found about 750 unsheltered homeless persons. (In 2015 we had found only about half as many.) We still were not able to cover all the routes we had carefully plotted in 2016, so we continued to suspect that we were not finding everyone who could be found.

In 2017, we set our target at 1,000 volunteers, and we ended up with about 1,375. We covered 99.5% of our routes, and we found 1,087 unsheltered persons. The box was unsealed, the cat was fully in view, and our two-year-old prediction had proven true. This is why in the 2017 State of Homeless Address we suggested that this number be the benchmark for our work moving forward.

 
The Homeless Management Information System

There was one more Schrödinger’s Cat problem we pointed out in early 2015. Communities in the United States are required under Federal Law to maintain Homeless Management Information Systems, commonly known as HMIS. Organizations like MDHA are tasked with operating these systems. Most organizations receiving Federal funding for housing programs for the homeless are required to report crucial data into these systems. This is not an issue of bureaucratic compliance. The only way we can and do help individual organizations and the community at large improve in our fight against homelessness is through collecting this data, analyzing it, and using it to drive improvement.

The problem was that in early 2015, only 3%(!) of the shelter beds available to Dallas’ homeless population were reported into the system. The data reported into the system from Federally funded housing programs is tremendously valuable, but it is data about the “back-end” of a person’s journey from homelessness to housing. The shelter environment is the “front-end” of homelessness, and we had very little data about it. It was more analogous to Schrödinger’s Cat, than the annual count ever was. In this regard, the cat was 97% sealed within the box.

 

 

During the last State of the Homeless Address, we had the audience go through our own thought experiment to drive this point home. We asked everyone to stand up to represent 100% of the homeless population. Then we gradually had sections of the audience sit down, leaving only a small section standing. We explained that we could not possibly, with a straight face, contend that the data we collect about the small section standing, was representative of the entire audience.

Already back in 2015, we stated that one of the most important things Dallas needed to do was move from 11(!) separate data systems to a single open state-of-the-art HMIS system, with at least 86% of shelter beds reported into it. The Federal Government does not really consider data from a system that does not have, at least 50%, to have any meaningful validity. Only at 86% does it consider the data to be comprehensive and reliable enough to award the community points on its collective grant application for homeless housing programs. The Federal Government cut the funding for homeless housing programs in Dallas twice over the last few years, because of this very problem. That cut did not affect the shelters; it affected the housing programs.    

 

We have been working on this problem for the last two years, early on partnering with PCCI and now Pieces Tech to develop that single open state-of-the-art HMIS for Dallas. In the meantime, we have increased the number of shelter beds reported into HMIS from 3% almost eleven-fold, but that is still just 32%. We are excited to be on the cusp of transitioning to the Pieces Tech HMIS, and even more excited that more service providers will be signing on to be a part of it. We are determined, this year, 2017, to break that 86% mark, and finally bid Schrödinger’s Cat adieu. We owe our homeless neighbors nothing less.   

* MDHA wishes to assure readers that no cats were harmed during the writing of this blog post, though one rabbit gave me a dirty look.

Watch the State of the Homeless Address 2017!

On Thursday, March 9, 2017, about 350 people joined us at Goodwill Industries of Dallas, for the State of the Homeless Address.

We were honored to hear introductory words from MDHA board member, Dallas County Commissioner, Dr. Theresa Daniel, and Chair of the MDHA board, Executive Director of the Turtle Creek Recovery Center, John Castaneda.

Cindy J. Crain, MDHA President and CEO, shared the results of the 2017 Point-in-Time Homeless Count, and the progress of the Homeless Response System.

Click here to watch!

Click here to download Cindy's PowerPoint Presentation.

State of the Homeless Address 2017

The Board of Directors of the Metro Dallas Homeless Alliance (MDHA) and the Dallas and Collin Counties Continuum of Care (CoC) invites the public to its annual signature meeting.

What: Results of the 2017 Point-in-Time Homeless Count, and the progress of the Homeless Response System.

Who: Cindy J. Crain, MDHA President and CEO

When: Thursday, March 9, 2017, 9.30-11.30am

Where: Goodwill Industries of Dallas, 3020 North Westmoreland Road, Dallas, Texas 75212 (Free parking is available, and DART buses 59 and 404 stop right in front.)

RSVP Today:

https://soha2017.eventbrite.com

2017 Homeless Count Day is Here, by Cindy J. Crain, MDHA President and CEO

Some 1,300 volunteers will deploy throughout Dallas and Collin Counties tonight to conduct the 2017 census of persons experiencing homelessness.  This overwhelming volunteer response will represent the largest point in time count ever within one Continuum of Care in Texas.

Those kinds of numbers give us an opportunity to inform individuals on the nature and extent of homelessness first hand.

It's simple what we're doing tonight: 

We go out to count the number of people who are experiencing homelessness at the same time we take an inventory of the housing we have available for them. 

These facts will allow us to articulate the extensive housing crisis that people in poverty, with disabling conditions, or a history in the criminal justice system face in Dallas and Collin Counties.

We will report out our findings on March 9 at the State of the Homeless Address and give the community a clearer picture of the nature and extent of the barriers people face in trying to secure a stable home.

As we go out tonight and look under bridges, along sidewalks, and in vehicles, we must resist the inclination from the encounter that the living condition is merely some defect of character or decision making.  We must understand that there are real institutional and economic forces that create disparities in access to resources of housing and healthcare which create a population of people who no longer have homes.

Can we change the hearts and minds of enough residents to resist the tendencies towards NIMBYism that all too often hold back the development of safe, quality, accessible and affordable housing?

Can we compel more to action that they will demonstratively give their local elected representatives the political backing they need to make the housing decisions that are the solutions to homelessness?

This is our opportunity to inform 1,300 volunteers and the public who watch, listen and read of the homeless count that Homelessness is what a housing crisis looks like.